Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 11.4 | 10.4% | 148 | 1.29% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 18.3 | 15.9% | 225 | 1.65% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 21.9 | 17.6% | 249 | 1.19% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 17.9 | 17.3% | 245 | 1.8% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 15.6 | 13.3% | 188 | 1.8% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 12.3 | 10.3% | 146 | 1.16% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 9.3 | 7.2% | 102 | 0.89% |
| 70+ | 8 | 12.1 | 8% | 113 | 1.08% |
| All ages | 97 | 118.7 | 100% | 1418 | 1.36% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | 28243 | 72683 | 668 | 172 | 2415 |
| Jan 29 | 28342 | 72783 | 669 | 172 | 2093 |
| Jan 30 | 28411 | 72845 | 669 | 172 | 1836 |
| Jan 31 | 28520 | 73015 | 671 | 172 | 1647 |
| Feb 01 | 28621 | 73127 | 671 | 172 | 1542 |
| Feb 02 | 28775 | 73261 | 671 | 172 | 1542 |
| Feb 03 | 28872 | 73304 | 671 | 172 | 1418 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | 17687 | 41742 | 658 | 164 | 1401 |
| Jan 29 | 17737 | 41795 | 659 | 164 | 1214 |
| Jan 30 | 17774 | 41841 | 661 | 165 | 1048 |
| Jan 31 | 17817 | 41910 | 663 | 165 | 938 |
| Feb 01 | 17872 | 41967 | 665 | 166 | 867 |
| Feb 02 | 17949 | 42027 | 666 | 167 | 862 |
| Feb 03 | 18020 | 42075 | 666 | 167 | 747 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 5.1 | 9.9% | 74 | 0.95% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 4.7 | 9.9% | 74 | 0.88% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 9.4 | 15% | 112 | 1.57% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 9.3 | 16.7% | 125 | 1.49% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 10.6 | 17% | 127 | 1.64% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 8.3 | 13% | 97 | 1% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 6.4 | 9.6% | 72 | 0.86% |
| 70+ | 7 | 7.0 | 8.7% | 65 | 0.91% |
| All ages | 71 | 61.0 | 100% | 747 | 1.16% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | 12822 | 27757 | 511 | 129 | 844 |
| Jan 29 | 12851 | 27793 | 511 | 130 | 771 |
| Jan 30 | 12887 | 27815 | 511 | 130 | 695 |
| Jan 31 | 12902 | 27866 | 512 | 130 | 598 |
| Feb 01 | 12950 | 27955 | 515 | 131 | 567 |
| Feb 02 | 12987 | 28006 | 515 | 131 | 555 |
| Feb 03 | 13016 | 28028 | 515 | 131 | 528 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.6 | 10.6% | 56 | 1.03% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.9 | 9.1% | 48 | 0.88% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 7.0 | 15.9% | 84 | 1.86% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 6.9 | 15.9% | 84 | 1.55% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.4 | 11.7% | 62 | 1.25% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.9 | 13.6% | 72 | 1.06% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.7 | 12.5% | 66 | 1.04% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.1 | 10.6% | 56 | 0.88% |
| All ages | 29 | 39.4 | 100% | 528 | 1.17% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | 32213 | 88768 | 938 | 155 | 3138 |
| Jan 29 | 32286 | 88896 | 939 | 155 | 2680 |
| Jan 30 | 32354 | 89013 | 946 | 155 | 2209 |
| Jan 31 | 32545 | 89241 | 946 | 155 | 2109 |
| Feb 01 | 32698 | 89443 | 951 | 155 | 2070 |
| Feb 02 | 32905 | 89648 | 955 | 155 | 2154 |
| Feb 03 | 33007 | 89768 | 957 | 155 | 1837 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 14 | 20.1 | 13.9% | 256 | 2.17% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 22.7 | 17.1% | 315 | 1.9% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 21.3 | 15.6% | 286 | 1.34% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 20.7 | 16.3% | 299 | 2.2% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 18.4 | 13.9% | 255 | 1.88% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 15.0 | 10.6% | 194 | 1.37% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 12.4 | 7% | 129 | 0.91% |
| 70+ | 9 | 8.6 | 5.5% | 101 | 0.78% |
| All ages | 102 | 139.4 | 100% | 1837 | 1.55% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | 114291 | 483957 | 2483 | 462 | 11219 |
| Jan 29 | 114819 | 484561 | 2484 | 462 | 8704 |
| Jan 30 | 115193 | 485021 | 2486 | 463 | 7584 |
| Jan 31 | 115619 | 485563 | 2488 | 463 | 6967 |
| Feb 01 | 116241 | 486250 | 2491 | 463 | 6809 |
| Feb 02 | 116877 | 487037 | 2492 | 463 | 6763 |
| Feb 03 | 117382 | 487645 | 2493 | 463 | 6575 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 74 | 93.1 | 18.3% | 1203 | 2% |
| 10-19 | 96 | 82.6 | 15.9% | 1045 | 1.47% |
| 20-29 | 119 | 96.7 | 17.1% | 1126 | 1.08% |
| 30-39 | 83 | 89.4 | 17.1% | 1124 | 1.47% |
| 40-49 | 54 | 68.1 | 12.8% | 843 | 1.28% |
| 50-59 | 35 | 45.6 | 8.5% | 557 | 0.85% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 31.3 | 5.7% | 378 | 0.69% |
| 70+ | 20 | 25.9 | 4.5% | 297 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 505 | 532.9 | 100% | 6575 | 1.2% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | 1509388 | 4074601 | 59926 | 12553 | 95233 |
| Jan 29 | 1513610 | 4079769 | 59993 | 12568 | 81412 |
| Jan 30 | 1516241 | 4083371 | 60061 | 12579 | 70979 |
| Jan 31 | 1520350 | 4088801 | 60352 | 12587 | 63585 |
| Feb 01 | 1525932 | 4096432 | 60587 | 12595 | 61712 |
| Feb 02 | 1531337 | 4103223 | 60742 | 12600 | 61753 |
| Feb 03 | 1535404 | 4108258 | 60785 | 12600 | 58779 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 456 | 593.9 | 12.9% | 7609 | 1.19% |
| 10-19 | 563 | 605.7 | 13.7% | 8066 | 1.07% |
| 20-29 | 634 | 672.7 | 14.1% | 8265 | 1.09% |
| 30-39 | 649 | 751.3 | 16.8% | 9869 | 1.3% |
| 40-49 | 544 | 631.0 | 14% | 8244 | 1.18% |
| 50-59 | 498 | 564.9 | 12.2% | 7148 | 0.88% |
| 60-69 | 353 | 439.1 | 9% | 5275 | 0.7% |
| 70+ | 361 | 375.7 | 7.2% | 4256 | 0.66% |
| All ages | 4067 | 4637.7 | 100% | 58779 | 1.01% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-02-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13623"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges